9/6/20 Market Analysis, Picks, And Sushi Thoughts
We had a crazy week in the crypto world. Here’s the low down - most assets took a 25-50% fall from its low point of the week. Gut wrenching. In addition, we has some drama with Sushiswap, speculation of the market, and more.
Let’s cover it all today on the weekly market review.
We finally saw a distributive move downward this week and is barely above a major support block at weekly close. Key considerations are the two main trendlines: the major trendline from 20k and the one from earlier this year in March. Right now we are hovering above a major support block on the volume which shows a lot of previous buyers interest. What seems likely to me is a sideways chop for the rest of the week and hovering between $10100 and $10300. I think this should continue to chop and eventually wick to the downside around $9400 to $
9600. The longer we stay here, the better for the bulls.
Support: major OB structure with mid at $9530
Resistance: $10500 followed by $11000
Aroon: 92/64 favoring bears, high bullish consolidation, 10 day expectancy
The high life for ETH has taken at least a momentary setback. On Twitter, I expressed several issues with this such as a bearish divergence on the daily and Aroon sell signal on the weekly timeframe. As it stands we are in some middle ground. Like Bitcoin, we are in between two lines: $336 support on 1D/3D and $360 resistance on weekly timeframe. I would long a break of $363 or short $336 hold above 3D. The 3D time frame has a couple more days to finish however so Id wait until Tuesday to confirm.
Aroon: on 3D 85/14 favoring bullish, bearish cross expected this week, bullish consolidation on 1D like Bitcoin
We saw a significant drop on LINK the past week but it has recovered well. LINK also has a wider Aroon consolidation point than BTC or ETH so I think this will be a little more bullish than the others and be bullish on its respective BTC/ETH pairs. I think $13.88 is a good short term target, even as early as tomorrow. If we can flip that, I think we're good. I'm not bearish on this any longer since it made a legacy touch of support yesterday.
One pick I like this week the most is LUNA. One key consideration gives this away and is the major block structure shown in blue which was recovered back in August. My targets for LUNA are 0.42 and 0.50 cents.
One semi-controversial coin from last week is Band when it was accused of being part of the Sushiswap shenanigans. They have claimed it is false. On the technical side, BAND has bounced off a major trendline upward with lots of potential with little risk since its already dropped considerably. I'm looking for an immediate target of $10.30 with a second target at $13.75.
Sticking with the DeFi coins, Reserve Rights looks pretty decent here. Touched on the major trendline with a great reaction, currently above the small OB at 0.018 cents. Immediate target of 0.021 with a second but less likely target at 0.025 cents.
Taking a considerable drop, VET looks good for a mid term push, resting inside a major OB structure. Waiting until a move up to 0.013 would be ideal. This also has a considerably wide Aroon bullish consolidation so it should mean it gets bullish faster than the rest.
Thoughts on Sushiswap
Really the biggest drama on CT was the issue about Sushi swap where the owner of the Sushi platform dumped all his coins on the market, crashing it down. Some are saying this was a rug pull while others are defending it. To make things even more interesting, the FTX founder has agreed to structure and improve upon Sushi as long as the main dev gain over the keys. It's quite complex.
I never invested in Sushi and after all I've heard, I still won't. I also think this project should not continue and I have uncertainties of its success.
Few reasons for this:
Projects with bad histories never really go anywhere: despite how we think that mistakes happen, etc., it's important to note that most projects dont really recover from failures like this. YAM is a most recent example as well as coins like Substratum and XHV, and more. Sure, these projects still make some money, but I think the damage is done.
SBF Alameda has agreed to take over the project which he's doing probably because it's a “win-win” scenario for him. He took the opportunity to cash in on a project at a discount which would give him a lot of recognition for, but if it ends up being a loss it can just be blamed on the failed state of the project anyway. I’m not saying he's doing anything wrong by this, but I don't see the reason to revive something that was an absolute dumpster fire. Lets not forget Sushi is listed on FTX which is already a conflict of interest (which I guess we forgot is a thing in crypto). This is essentially vampire mining Uniswap for SBF’s benefit.
Forked AMMs will happen regardless of Sushi or not. I don’t see why this project, which has already been tainted heavily after a month, needs to be THE project to carry the DeFi space. If it was already a fork of Uniswap then other forks are bound to happen that actually can have a good reputation. And there are already great people willing to make this happen.
Let me know what you think. Have a great week!